Rumors of a FQ2 iPad 5 Launch

Reports are all over the internet today regarding an upcoming launch of an iPad 5.  This conversation really began when analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI securities suggested that pressure from Microsoft's Surface tablet would require Cupertino to respond with an accelerated refresh cycle.  Kuo does not however claim to be basing this prediction on any inside information - or evidence of any kind.



I'd like to use my very small megaphone here to say that this is not likely to happen, and Kuo is wrong.  Apple has historically kept very near to an annual product cycle for virtually every product line.  This consistency  has been even more pronounced with iOS devices such as the iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch.

Apple has two major reasons to adhere to this longstanding practice.  First, production efficiencies and improved component pricing are realized over time, making a product much more profitable the longer it's on the market at it's initial price point.Constantly creating complete overhauls of a product is an unfortunate methodology that other less successful tech firms have had to employ.  Apple has routinely seen success selling products years after their initial design - look at the 3GS which just recently was discontinued.  Creating a new iPad in October, and then replacing it entirely 3-4 months later does not capitalize on this time-tested business strategy.

More importantly, creating a new iPad today, and then just one quarter from now releasing another would cause irreparable harm to the strong relationship between Cupertino and it's most loyal customers.  Apple has traditionally been very good at not just maintaining, but growing it's "cult".  For Apple to risk seriously harming this relationship would require very dire circumstances, which leads me to the larger reason KGI is wrong here...

There simply isn't any reason for Apple to hurt profits and harm relations with their users right now.  The surface certainly isn't the first device to be labeled an "iPad killer".  Analysts and others in the tech field have readily given this title to every product released outside of Cupertino since 2010.  Should Surface, or more likely a Nexus branded product, become a major threat to Apple - when that happens we might see a change in strategy.  At the present time, the iPad has most of the sales, the lion's share of profit, and better than 90% of actual usage.  It's way too early to be predicting major change in a flagship product's upgrade cycle.